It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.
Charles Dickens' famous opening to his classic novel, A Tale of Two Cities, spoke of the dual fortunes of two French Revolution-era characters, but in today's context, those words could signify the fortunes of cities themselves.
One thing we've clearly learned these past six months or so: We are returning to the city.
As we heard at the CoreNet Global Atlanta and Chicago Summits, a majority (51%) of the world's population resides in cities. It's the first time in recorded history that more of us live in urban environments than not.
But this one demographic shift is only one of many; and as populations continue to migrate, grow or even contract, there will be winners and losers among the cities of the future.
A new study by Cushman & Wakefield offers further validation.
C&W has statistically proven that a handful of major cities including Tortono, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and Boston, "are cities leading the way in drawing companies back from the suburbs." So despite big announcements like Apple consolidating its Bay-area operations in the suburbs, or ExxonMobil moving its corporate HQ from downtown to suburban Houston, urbanity's gravitational pull will prevail.
Scientific American magazine thinks so, and did a pretty good job proving it in a special edition published in September on "Better, Greener and Smarter Cities." The magazine took a deep dive into the multiplicity of forces and factors driving reurbanization, adding the front cover rubric, "We have seen a brighter future, and it is urban."
Cities gain and lose stature over time, as the magazine reminds us.
In 1950, the five most populated cities were New York, Tokyo, London, Paris and Moscow, in that order. By 2010, the pecking order became Tokyo, Delhi, Sao Paulo, Mumbai and Mexico City.
By 2020, as futurist and National Geographic commentator Andrew Zolli told us in Atlanta, the rankings will change yet again.
We could be adding names like Dhaka, Hanoi and Shanghai to the list.
"In our society," Zolli says, "faster-moving trends get the most attention, while slower-moving trends have the most impact." The new urbanization proves the point. It's taken six decades, but New York, London, Paris and Moscow are not dominating the urban landscape as before, and while they remain great cities, population growth will not be among the reasons why.
Technology is one major factor, however, that will.
Look at how Cisco is deploying a series of "Smart Work Centers" in cities like Chicago and Paris. These facilities leverage Cisco technology and accentuate flexible work styles while acknowledging the mandate to use less space and spend less money to do so. Yet, befitting today's now engrained portfolio optimization focus, Cisco has found a way to increase productivity and employee satisfaction, starting with the fact Smart Work Centers are integrated facilities that blend digital and virtual business with personal amenities. On top of it all, Cisco is alo finding another way to reduce the massive 200-billion-square-foot global existing building portfolio accounting for all commercial real estate in the world - which is increasingly vacant or abandoned.
We've seen how place and technology blend effectively. Now we can say the same is true with technology and cities. In a news conference I hosted during the recent Atlanta Global Summit, JLL's Peter Miscovich drove home the point that future technology trends will help determine "the battle for control of smart cities."
So yes, factors like population growth, affordable housing, jobs, public transit and health care will determine what cities emerge as winners in the next decade or so, but so will the mobile internet, cloud computing, interactive public interfaces, and the Internet of Things.